FPL defensive projections

FPL Clean Sheet Odds

See the teams most likely to keep a clean sheet this Gameweek, ranked by Fantasy Matchup Edge's projected clean-sheet probability.

Clean-sheet odds are useful when you want one clear defensive signal. If your real question is which defenders or teams have the best upcoming fixtures, our Next 5 FPL fixture difficulty view goes further — separating DEF, MID and FWD difficulty before drilling down to individual player projections.

Current Gameweek

Premier League clean sheet odds

A fast team-level view of the defensive environment: clean-sheet probability, the equivalent fair decimal odds and projected goals against.

GW7 · validated
Fixture environment locked 13 Oct 2026, 13:42 BST
20 teams shown Click any column heading to sort. Fair odds are implied by FME's probability, not bookmaker prices.
1 Man CityMCI vs Ipswich Town H 44.2% 2.26 0.95
2 ArsenalARS vs Nott'm Forest A 42.7% 2.34 1.04
3 SpursTOT vs Coventry City H 37.9% 2.64 1.13
4 FulhamFUL vs Hull City H 35.3% 2.83 1.23
5 BrightonBHA vs Crystal Palace H 34.5% 2.90 1.22
6 BournemouthBOU vs Sunderland H 30.4% 3.29 1.34
7 ChelseaCHE vs Everton A 25.7% 3.89 1.49
8 NewcastleNEW vs Aston Villa H 24.3% 4.11 1.55
9 LeedsLEE vs Man Utd H 22.1% 4.53 1.63
10 BrentfordBRE vs Liverpool H 21.6% 4.64 1.64
11 Man UtdMUN vs Leeds A 21.3% 4.70 1.69
12 SunderlandSUN vs Bournemouth A 19.8% 5.04 1.75
13 LiverpoolLIV vs Brentford A 19.7% 5.07 1.76
14 Aston VillaAVL vs Newcastle A 19.5% 5.13 1.80
15 EvertonEVE vs Chelsea H 18.7% 5.33 1.79
16 Hull CityHUL vs Fulham A 15.7% 6.37 1.97
17 Nott'm ForestNFO vs Arsenal H 14.8% 6.75 1.94
18 Crystal PalaceCRY vs Brighton A 12.9% 7.74 2.16
19 Coventry CityCOV vs Spurs A 11.4% 8.79 2.23
20 Ipswich TownIPS vs Man City A 7.4% 13.57 2.75

Green means the stronger defensive environment. Clean-sheet chance is the model's authoritative target-fixture probability. “Fair odds” are simply the decimal odds implied by that probability; they are not live bookmaker prices.

Next 5 fixture difficulty

Planning beyond one clean sheet?

Clean-sheet odds answer one question. Fixture difficulty answers the decision.

If you're choosing a defender or planning transfers, a single clean-sheet percentage is only part of the picture. Our Next 5 view compares the upcoming schedule by position, then goes beyond team ratings to show the players the model actually expects to benefit.

Go deeper Next 5 FPL Fixture Difficulty DEF / MID / FWD ratings + player-level projections

Use the number for what it is

What FPL clean sheet odds tell you.

A clean-sheet probability is a useful team-level estimate of how likely a side is to finish the match without conceding. For goalkeepers and defenders, that matters because the FPL scoring system attaches a large chunk of defensive value to the clean sheet itself.

It is especially useful when you want a fast comparison between teams in the current Gameweek: which defensive environments look strongest, which fixtures carry real shutout potential, and where the clean-sheet route is relatively weak.

But don't confuse the team with the player

Every defender on a team can inherit the same clean-sheet chance without having the same fantasy projection. Minutes, attacking involvement, DEFCON potential, bonus routes and the individual matchup can separate players dramatically.

Why the “best clean-sheet fixture” is not always the best defender fixture.

Imagine a team with one of the highest clean-sheet probabilities of the week. A centre-back with little attacking threat and a matchup unlikely to generate many defensive actions can still have a fairly narrow route to points: appearance points plus the clean sheet.

Now compare that with an attacking full-back in a tougher fixture. The clean-sheet chance may be lower, but the matchup could create more crossing, chance creation, attacking touches or other routes to fantasy points. The harder-looking fixture can still produce the stronger individual projection.

That is why our FPL fixture difficulty page treats the clean-sheet environment as context rather than the answer. It first separates difficulty by position, then uses the FME model to project individual players across the next five games.

Want the actual player score?

Clean-sheet probability is one input into a defender's overall outlook. For the complete current-Gameweek answer — including attacking actions, defensive contributions and the distribution of possible scores — use our FPL predicted points and player projections.

For a deeper explanation of how match context becomes a player projection, see How Our Model Works, or return to our FPL tools hub.