Most DEFCON tables tell you who has earned defensive contribution points already. Fantasy Matchup Edge is built to answer the more useful question: who is most likely to earn them next?
We project each player's qualifying defensive actions inside the upcoming matchup, then estimate the probability that they reach the FPL threshold for their position. That turns DEFCON from a backward-looking stat into a forward-looking decision tool.
Position-aware thresholdsPlayer + opponent matchupForward probability, not just history
Current Gameweek
DEFCON FPL predictions
Rank players by their simulated chance of reaching the defensive-contribution threshold, with team clean-sheet context alongside it for DEF/MID, then switch to the component view to inspect the actions underneath the model total.
DEFCON model snapshot: 13 Oct 2026, 13:42 BST.
GW7 · validated
IF PLAYER STARTS
Overview: the canonical projected CBIT/CBIRT total, threshold-hit probability, team clean-sheet chance and expected defensive FPL points.
204 players shownClick any player row for the DEFCON breakdown and full projected action profile.
Fixture
Threshold
Profile
3
Brentford · 4/6 starts
MID
Liverpool (H)
12 CBIRT
14.75
21.6%
75.0%
1.71
1.50
4.91
5
Everton · 5/6 starts
MID
Chelsea (H)
12 CBIRT
14.14
18.7%
70.4%
1.60
1.41
4.40
6
Spurs · 4/6 starts
MID
Coventry City (H)
12 CBIRT
14.09
37.9%
70.2%
1.78
1.40
3.81
7
Chelsea · 4/6 starts
DEF
Everton (H)
10 CBIT
12.37
25.7%
66.4%
2.36
1.33
3.54
8
Ipswich Town · 3/6 starts
MID
Man City (H)
12 CBIRT
13.24
7.4%
63.0%
1.33
1.26
3.81
10
Coventry City · 4/6 starts
DEF
Spurs (H)
10 CBIT
11.63
11.4%
60.2%
1.66
1.20
3.42
12
Brentford · 3/6 starts
DEF
Liverpool (H)
10 CBIT
11.34
21.6%
59.1%
2.04
1.18
4.36
13
Coventry City · 4/6 starts
MID
Spurs (H)
12 CBIRT
12.73
11.4%
58.4%
1.28
1.17
3.75
15
Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
DEF
Sunderland (H)
10 CBIT
10.93
30.4%
57.8%
2.37
1.16
4.24
16
Man City · 6/6 starts
MID
Ipswich Town (H)
12 CBIRT
12.46
44.2%
56.2%
1.57
1.12
4.67
18
Hull City · 5/6 starts
DEF
Fulham (H)
10 CBIT
10.72
15.7%
55.3%
1.73
1.11
3.48
19
Newcastle · 6/6 starts
DEF
Aston Villa (H)
10 CBIT
10.72
24.3%
55.2%
2.08
1.10
4.06
20
Brighton · 6/6 starts
DEF
Crystal Palace (H)
10 CBIT
10.67
34.5%
55.0%
2.48
1.10
5.50
21
Leeds · 6/6 starts
DEF
Man Utd (H)
10 CBIT
10.66
22.1%
54.8%
1.98
1.10
3.97
22
Bournemouth · 5/6 starts
MID
Sunderland (H)
12 CBIRT
12.26
30.4%
54.5%
1.39
1.09
4.02
23
Chelsea · 5/6 starts
DEF
Everton (H)
10 CBIT
10.55
25.7%
54.5%
2.12
1.09
4.07
29
Man Utd · 5/6 starts
MID
Leeds (H)
12 CBIRT
11.98
21.3%
51.5%
1.24
1.03
3.92
30
Coventry City · 6/6 starts
DEF
Spurs (H)
10 CBIT
10.31
11.4%
51.5%
1.49
1.03
3.30
31
Nott'm Forest · 6/6 starts
DEF
Arsenal (H)
10 CBIT
10.15
14.8%
51.2%
1.62
1.02
3.07
32
Brentford · 6/6 starts
DEF
Liverpool (H)
10 CBIT
10.30
21.6%
51.1%
1.88
1.02
3.41
33
Everton · 6/6 starts
DEF
Chelsea (H)
10 CBIT
10.10
18.7%
51.0%
1.77
1.02
4.03
34
Hull City · 6/6 starts
DEF
Fulham (H)
10 CBIT
10.17
15.7%
50.7%
1.64
1.01
3.33
36
Ipswich Town · 4/6 starts
DEF
Man City (H)
10 CBIT
10.17
7.4%
50.6%
1.31
1.01
2.45
38
Bournemouth · 4/6 starts
MID
Sunderland (H)
12 CBIRT
11.67
30.4%
48.8%
1.28
0.98
3.75
39
Crystal Palace · 6/6 starts
DEF
Brighton (H)
10 CBIT
9.81
12.9%
48.2%
1.48
0.96
2.73
40
Leeds · 4/6 starts
MID
Man Utd (H)
12 CBIRT
11.61
22.1%
48.2%
1.18
0.96
3.69
41
Leeds · 6/6 starts
DEF
Man Utd (H)
10 CBIT
9.68
22.1%
48.0%
1.84
0.96
4.28
42
Sunderland · 5/6 starts
DEF
Bournemouth (H)
10 CBIT
9.73
19.8%
46.9%
1.73
0.94
3.14
43
Everton · 6/6 starts
DEF
Chelsea (H)
10 CBIT
9.70
18.7%
46.9%
1.69
0.94
3.83
45
Brentford · 3/6 starts
MID
Liverpool (H)
12 CBIRT
11.43
21.6%
46.3%
1.14
0.93
3.46
47
Coventry City · 4/6 starts
MID
Spurs (H)
12 CBIRT
11.40
11.4%
45.9%
1.03
0.92
3.83
52
Sunderland · 5/6 starts
DEF
Bournemouth (H)
10 CBIT
9.39
19.8%
44.8%
1.69
0.90
4.51
54
Fulham · 3/6 starts
DEF
Hull City (H)
10 CBIT
9.35
35.3%
43.9%
2.29
0.88
4.65
55
Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
DEF
Sunderland (H)
10 CBIT
9.35
30.4%
43.8%
2.09
0.88
4.26
56
Sunderland · 4/6 starts
DEF
Bournemouth (H)
10 CBIT
9.35
19.8%
43.6%
1.67
0.87
2.84
57
Nott'm Forest · 4/6 starts
DEF
Arsenal (H)
10 CBIT
9.31
14.8%
43.5%
1.46
0.87
3.11
58
Ipswich Town · 6/6 starts
DEF
Man City (H)
10 CBIT
9.31
7.4%
43.2%
1.16
0.86
2.59
60
Newcastle · 6/6 starts
MID
Aston Villa (H)
12 CBIRT
11.08
24.3%
42.8%
1.10
0.86
4.08
61
Crystal Palace · 5/6 starts
DEF
Brighton (H)
10 CBIT
9.20
12.9%
42.6%
1.37
0.85
2.54
66
Brentford · 6/6 starts
MID
Liverpool (H)
12 CBIRT
10.97
21.6%
41.6%
1.05
0.83
3.85
68
Fulham · 4/6 starts
MID
Hull City (H)
12 CBIRT
10.91
35.3%
41.0%
1.17
0.82
4.44
70
Leeds · 4/6 starts
DEF
Man Utd (H)
10 CBIT
9.04
22.1%
40.7%
1.70
0.81
3.67
75
Liverpool · 6/6 starts
DEF
Brentford (H)
10 CBIT
8.95
19.7%
39.8%
1.59
0.80
4.21
78
Nott'm Forest · 5/6 starts
MID
Arsenal (H)
12 CBIRT
10.71
14.8%
39.0%
0.93
0.78
3.53
80
Newcastle · 6/6 starts
DEF
Aston Villa (H)
10 CBIT
8.80
24.3%
38.4%
1.74
0.77
3.90
81
Leeds · 6/6 starts
MID
Man Utd (H)
12 CBIRT
10.65
22.1%
38.4%
0.99
0.77
4.69
82
Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
DEF
Sunderland (H)
10 CBIT
8.76
30.4%
38.4%
1.98
0.77
4.62
83
Liverpool · 4/6 starts
MID
Brentford (H)
12 CBIRT
10.59
19.7%
37.8%
0.95
0.76
4.02
85
Brighton · 6/6 starts
MID
Crystal Palace (H)
12 CBIRT
10.58
34.5%
37.7%
1.10
0.75
4.50
86
Sunderland · 6/6 starts
MID
Bournemouth (H)
12 CBIRT
10.57
19.8%
37.6%
0.95
0.75
3.42
91
Spurs · 6/6 starts
DEF
Coventry City (H)
10 CBIT
8.63
37.9%
37.0%
2.26
0.74
4.70
95
Leeds · 6/6 starts
MID
Man Utd (H)
12 CBIRT
10.42
22.1%
35.9%
0.94
0.72
3.02
96
Liverpool · 5/6 starts
MID
Brentford (H)
12 CBIRT
10.40
19.7%
35.7%
0.91
0.71
4.46
104
Aston Villa · 4/6 starts
MID
Newcastle (H)
12 CBIRT
10.15
19.5%
33.4%
0.86
0.67
4.86
107
Nott'm Forest · 6/6 starts
MID
Arsenal (H)
12 CBIRT
10.09
14.8%
32.7%
0.80
0.65
3.62
112
Chelsea · 4/6 starts
MID
Everton (H)
12 CBIRT
10.00
25.7%
31.3%
0.88
0.63
3.49
114
Man Utd · 6/6 starts
MID
Leeds (H)
12 CBIRT
9.91
21.3%
30.9%
0.83
0.62
3.78
116
Arsenal · 6/6 starts
DEF
Nott'm Forest (H)
10 CBIT
7.94
42.7%
30.2%
2.31
0.60
4.77
118
Aston Villa · 3/6 starts
DEF
Newcastle (H)
10 CBIT
7.87
19.5%
30.1%
1.38
0.60
2.93
119
Hull City · 6/6 starts
DEF
Fulham (H)
10 CBIT
7.94
15.7%
29.8%
1.22
0.60
2.96
122
Newcastle · 4/6 starts
MID
Aston Villa (H)
12 CBIRT
9.65
24.3%
28.2%
0.81
0.56
3.24
124
Spurs · 3/6 starts
MID
Coventry City (H)
12 CBIRT
9.56
37.9%
27.3%
0.93
0.55
3.89
125
Crystal Palace · 6/6 starts
MID
Brighton (H)
12 CBIRT
9.57
12.9%
27.2%
0.67
0.54
3.53
126
Man Utd · 6/6 starts
DEF
Leeds (H)
10 CBIT
7.62
21.3%
27.1%
1.39
0.54
3.03
128
Brentford · 4/6 starts
MID
Liverpool (H)
12 CBIRT
9.46
21.6%
26.9%
0.75
0.54
4.19
129
Crystal Palace · 4/6 starts
MID
Brighton (H)
12 CBIRT
9.50
12.9%
26.7%
0.66
0.53
3.41
130
Everton · 5/6 starts
DEF
Chelsea (H)
10 CBIT
7.66
18.7%
26.7%
1.28
0.53
2.68
133
Aston Villa · 6/6 starts
DEF
Newcastle (H)
10 CBIT
7.42
19.5%
26.2%
1.30
0.52
3.00
136
Chelsea · 5/6 starts
DEF
Everton (H)
10 CBIT
7.47
25.7%
25.5%
1.54
0.51
3.56
137
Liverpool · 6/6 starts
DEF
Brentford (H)
10 CBIT
7.54
19.7%
25.4%
1.30
0.51
3.07
140
Fulham · 5/6 starts
DEF
Hull City (H)
10 CBIT
7.51
35.3%
24.7%
1.91
0.49
4.33
142
Nott'm Forest · 3/6 starts
DEF
Arsenal (H)
10 CBIT
7.22
14.8%
23.6%
1.06
0.47
2.72
144
Coventry City · 4/6 starts
DEF
Spurs (H)
10 CBIT
7.19
11.4%
23.3%
0.92
0.47
2.25
146
Crystal Palace · 5/6 starts
DEF
Brighton (H)
10 CBIT
7.37
12.9%
23.1%
0.98
0.46
3.34
148
Coventry City · 5/6 starts
DEF
Spurs (H)
10 CBIT
7.22
11.4%
22.1%
0.90
0.44
2.44
149
Brentford · 6/6 starts
MID
Liverpool (H)
12 CBIRT
8.96
21.6%
22.0%
0.65
0.44
3.61
150
Brentford · 3/6 starts
MID
Liverpool (H)
12 CBIRT
8.95
21.6%
21.7%
0.65
0.43
4.63
151
Liverpool · 4/6 starts
DEF
Brentford (H)
10 CBIT
7.08
19.7%
21.6%
1.22
0.43
3.21
152
Arsenal · 6/6 starts
MID
Nott'm Forest (H)
12 CBIRT
8.91
42.7%
21.0%
0.85
0.42
3.54
154
Coventry City · 6/6 starts
MID
Spurs (H)
12 CBIRT
8.77
11.4%
20.9%
0.53
0.42
3.07
155
Man City · 5/6 starts
MID
Ipswich Town (H)
12 CBIRT
8.81
44.2%
20.6%
0.85
0.41
4.28
156
Man Utd · 5/6 starts
DEF
Leeds (H)
10 CBIT
7.11
21.3%
20.6%
1.26
0.41
2.80
163
Brighton · 4/6 starts
DEF
Crystal Palace (H)
10 CBIT
6.79
34.5%
19.7%
1.78
0.39
3.91
165
Sunderland · 5/6 starts
DEF
Bournemouth (H)
10 CBIT
6.95
19.8%
19.4%
1.18
0.39
2.77
169
Ipswich Town · 6/6 starts
DEF
Man City (H)
10 CBIT
6.73
7.4%
19.1%
0.68
0.38
2.23
173
Everton · 6/6 starts
MID
Chelsea (H)
12 CBIRT
8.54
18.7%
18.3%
0.55
0.37
4.71
175
Aston Villa · 6/6 starts
MID
Newcastle (H)
12 CBIRT
8.62
19.5%
18.2%
0.56
0.36
3.25
177
Everton · 6/6 starts
MID
Chelsea (H)
12 CBIRT
8.52
18.7%
18.0%
0.55
0.36
3.16
180
Fulham · 6/6 starts
DEF
Hull City (H)
10 CBIT
6.67
35.3%
17.7%
1.77
0.35
3.60
182
Newcastle · 6/6 starts
DEF
Aston Villa (H)
10 CBIT
6.75
24.3%
17.5%
1.32
0.35
3.24
183
Man City · 6/6 starts
DEF
Ipswich Town (H)
10 CBIT
6.57
44.2%
17.0%
2.11
0.34
4.91
189
Brighton · 5/6 starts
FWD
Crystal Palace (H)
12 CBIRT
8.31
—
16.4%
—
0.33
4.66
191
Spurs · 3/6 starts
DEF
Coventry City (H)
10 CBIT
6.63
37.9%
16.3%
1.84
0.33
4.07
193
Nott'm Forest · 4/6 starts
DEF
Arsenal (H)
10 CBIT
6.59
14.8%
15.9%
0.91
0.32
3.04
197
Spurs · 6/6 starts
MID
Coventry City (H)
12 CBIRT
8.24
37.9%
15.5%
0.69
0.31
3.10
198
Ipswich Town · 6/6 starts
MID
Man City (H)
12 CBIRT
8.27
7.4%
15.3%
0.38
0.31
2.40
202
Spurs · 4/6 starts
DEF
Coventry City (H)
10 CBIT
6.28
37.9%
15.2%
1.82
0.30
3.93
203
Spurs · 4/6 starts
MID
Coventry City (H)
12 CBIRT
8.19
37.9%
15.2%
0.68
0.30
3.62
204
Aston Villa · 4/6 starts
DEF
Newcastle (H)
10 CBIT
6.50
19.5%
15.1%
1.08
0.30
2.93
227
Hull City · 5/6 starts
MID
Fulham (H)
12 CBIRT
8.22
15.7%
14.6%
0.45
0.29
3.84
228
Crystal Palace · 6/6 starts
DEF
Brighton (H)
10 CBIT
6.37
12.9%
13.9%
0.80
0.28
2.23
234
Liverpool · 5/6 starts
DEF
Brentford (H)
10 CBIT
6.30
19.7%
13.6%
1.06
0.27
3.01
236
Man Utd · 5/6 starts
DEF
Leeds (H)
10 CBIT
6.10
21.3%
13.6%
1.12
0.27
2.48
238
Nott'm Forest · 5/6 starts
DEF
Arsenal (H)
10 CBIT
6.30
14.8%
13.1%
0.85
0.26
2.24
239
Chelsea · 4/6 starts
DEF
Everton (H)
10 CBIT
6.28
25.7%
13.1%
1.29
0.26
2.72
241
Arsenal · 4/6 starts
DEF
Nott'm Forest (H)
10 CBIT
6.04
42.7%
13.0%
1.97
0.26
4.04
242
Fulham · 5/6 starts
DEF
Hull City (H)
10 CBIT
6.15
35.3%
12.9%
1.67
0.26
3.34
245
Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
MID
Sunderland (H)
12 CBIRT
7.77
30.4%
12.6%
0.56
0.25
4.44
247
Man City · 5/6 starts
DEF
Ipswich Town (H)
10 CBIT
6.23
44.2%
12.3%
2.02
0.25
5.09
253
Man City · 4/6 starts
MID
Ipswich Town (H)
12 CBIRT
7.73
44.2%
11.7%
0.68
0.23
5.35
255
Man City · 6/6 starts
DEF
Ipswich Town (H)
10 CBIT
5.75
44.2%
11.6%
2.00
0.23
4.27
261
Brighton · 3/6 starts
MID
Crystal Palace (H)
12 CBIRT
7.64
34.5%
11.0%
0.57
0.22
4.21
263
Newcastle · 4/6 starts
DEF
Aston Villa (H)
10 CBIT
5.92
24.3%
10.7%
1.19
0.21
3.23
265
Hull City · 4/6 starts
MID
Fulham (H)
12 CBIRT
7.65
15.7%
10.6%
0.37
0.21
3.02
268
Brighton · 5/6 starts
MID
Crystal Palace (H)
12 CBIRT
7.46
34.5%
10.1%
0.55
0.20
4.13
272
Man City · 3/6 starts
DEF
Ipswich Town (H)
10 CBIT
5.58
44.2%
9.2%
1.95
0.18
4.45
278
Hull City · 6/6 starts
MID
Fulham (H)
12 CBIRT
7.39
15.7%
9.1%
0.34
0.18
2.84
281
Fulham · 5/6 starts
MID
Hull City (H)
12 CBIRT
7.28
35.3%
8.9%
0.53
0.18
2.53
284
Sunderland · 6/6 starts
MID
Bournemouth (H)
12 CBIRT
7.29
19.8%
8.6%
0.37
0.17
2.37
285
Leeds · 4/6 starts
DEF
Man Utd (H)
10 CBIT
5.71
22.1%
8.5%
1.05
0.17
2.35
288
Crystal Palace · 5/6 starts
MID
Brighton (H)
12 CBIRT
7.13
12.9%
8.2%
0.29
0.16
3.13
289
Man Utd · 4/6 starts
DEF
Leeds (H)
10 CBIT
5.58
21.3%
8.1%
1.01
0.16
2.55
290
Ipswich Town · 5/6 starts
MID
Man City (H)
12 CBIRT
7.12
7.4%
8.0%
0.23
0.16
3.24
293
Brentford · 6/6 starts
MID
Liverpool (H)
12 CBIRT
7.07
21.6%
8.0%
0.37
0.16
4.61
296
Arsenal · 5/6 starts
DEF
Nott'm Forest (H)
10 CBIT
5.53
42.7%
7.8%
1.86
0.16
4.19
297
Hull City · 4/6 starts
MID
Fulham (H)
12 CBIRT
7.08
15.7%
7.5%
0.31
0.15
3.26
300
Sunderland · 6/6 starts
MID
Bournemouth (H)
12 CBIRT
7.03
19.8%
7.2%
0.34
0.14
3.51
301
Fulham · 6/6 starts
MID
Hull City (H)
12 CBIRT
6.84
35.3%
7.1%
0.49
0.14
3.93
302
Chelsea · 6/6 starts
MID
Everton (H)
12 CBIRT
6.85
25.7%
7.0%
0.40
0.14
5.07
305
Everton · 3/6 starts
DEF
Chelsea (H)
10 CBIT
5.31
18.7%
6.5%
0.88
0.13
2.98
307
Arsenal · 6/6 starts
DEF
Nott'm Forest (H)
10 CBIT
5.21
42.7%
6.4%
1.83
0.13
3.97
308
Everton · 4/6 starts
MID
Chelsea (H)
12 CBIRT
6.59
18.7%
6.2%
0.31
0.12
3.47
313
Sunderland · 6/6 starts
MID
Bournemouth (H)
12 CBIRT
6.78
19.8%
6.1%
0.32
0.12
4.05
314
Aston Villa · 4/6 starts
DEF
Newcastle (H)
10 CBIT
5.18
19.5%
6.0%
0.90
0.12
2.61
317
Man City · 6/6 starts
MID
Ipswich Town (H)
12 CBIRT
6.66
44.2%
5.9%
0.56
0.12
5.33
320
Crystal Palace · 6/6 starts
MID
Brighton (H)
12 CBIRT
6.75
12.9%
5.8%
0.24
0.12
2.27
323
Aston Villa · 4/6 starts
MID
Newcastle (H)
12 CBIRT
6.65
19.5%
5.5%
0.31
0.11
3.59
324
Coventry City · 5/6 starts
MID
Spurs (H)
12 CBIRT
6.57
11.4%
5.5%
0.22
0.11
4.67
325
Everton · 4/6 starts
MID
Chelsea (H)
12 CBIRT
6.59
18.7%
5.5%
0.30
0.11
2.41
326
Ipswich Town · 6/6 starts
MID
Man City (H)
12 CBIRT
6.55
7.4%
5.4%
0.18
0.11
3.28
329
Nott'm Forest · 6/6 starts
DEF
Arsenal (H)
10 CBIT
4.99
14.8%
5.2%
0.70
0.10
2.55
330
Liverpool · 6/6 starts
MID
Brentford (H)
12 CBIRT
6.42
19.7%
5.2%
0.30
0.10
4.10
331
Liverpool · 4/6 starts
MID
Brentford (H)
12 CBIRT
6.54
19.7%
5.2%
0.30
0.10
4.13
333
Brentford · 5/6 starts
DEF
Liverpool (H)
10 CBIT
5.02
21.6%
5.0%
0.96
0.10
2.69
338
Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
DEF
Sunderland (H)
10 CBIT
4.76
30.4%
4.6%
1.31
0.09
3.52
339
Chelsea · 6/6 starts
MID
Everton (H)
12 CBIRT
6.36
25.7%
4.6%
0.35
0.09
4.17
344
Hull City · 6/6 starts
DEF
Fulham (H)
10 CBIT
4.70
15.7%
4.4%
0.72
0.09
2.45
347
Brighton · 6/6 starts
MID
Crystal Palace (H)
12 CBIRT
6.23
34.5%
4.0%
0.43
0.08
3.45
354
Newcastle · 3/6 starts
MID
Aston Villa (H)
12 CBIRT
6.08
24.3%
3.6%
0.31
0.07
3.92
359
Fulham · 6/6 starts
MID
Hull City (H)
12 CBIRT
6.09
35.3%
3.4%
0.42
0.07
3.26
360
Bournemouth · 4/6 starts
MID
Sunderland (H)
12 CBIRT
5.91
30.4%
3.4%
0.37
0.07
3.94
368
Arsenal · 5/6 starts
MID
Nott'm Forest (H)
12 CBIRT
5.96
42.7%
3.2%
0.49
0.06
6.40
369
Man Utd · 6/6 starts
MID
Leeds (H)
12 CBIRT
5.84
21.3%
3.1%
0.27
0.06
5.39
374
Coventry City · 6/6 starts
DEF
Spurs (H)
10 CBIT
4.44
11.4%
2.8%
0.51
0.06
1.91
375
Ipswich Town · 4/6 starts
MID
Man City (H)
12 CBIRT
5.91
7.4%
2.7%
0.13
0.05
3.94
377
Hull City · 6/6 starts
DEF
Fulham (H)
10 CBIT
4.27
15.7%
2.7%
0.68
0.05
1.90
378
Aston Villa · 6/6 starts
MID
Newcastle (H)
12 CBIRT
5.85
19.5%
2.6%
0.25
0.05
3.73
380
Aston Villa · 6/6 starts
MID
Newcastle (H)
12 CBIRT
5.68
19.5%
2.6%
0.25
0.05
4.86
382
Leeds · 6/6 starts
DEF
Man Utd (H)
10 CBIT
4.42
22.1%
2.5%
0.93
0.05
3.18
386
Man Utd · 6/6 starts
MID
Leeds (H)
12 CBIRT
5.63
21.3%
2.3%
0.26
0.05
4.27
388
Chelsea · 5/6 starts
MID
Everton (H)
12 CBIRT
5.56
25.7%
2.2%
0.30
0.04
3.81
389
Spurs · 4/6 starts
DEF
Coventry City (H)
10 CBIT
4.09
37.9%
2.1%
1.56
0.04
4.27
391
Arsenal · 6/6 starts
MID
Nott'm Forest (H)
12 CBIRT
5.54
42.7%
2.1%
0.47
0.04
4.91
392
Liverpool · 3/6 starts
MID
Brentford (H)
12 CBIRT
5.56
19.7%
2.1%
0.24
0.04
4.06
394
Leeds · 5/6 starts
MID
Man Utd (H)
12 CBIRT
5.57
22.1%
2.0%
0.26
0.04
6.70
399
Sunderland · 6/6 starts
DEF
Bournemouth (H)
10 CBIT
4.01
19.8%
1.7%
0.83
0.03
3.13
403
Newcastle · 6/6 starts
MID
Aston Villa (H)
12 CBIRT
5.37
24.3%
1.6%
0.28
0.03
4.72
405
Coventry City · 3/6 starts
FWD
Spurs (H)
12 CBIRT
5.22
—
1.4%
—
0.03
3.91
409
Fulham · 6/6 starts
MID
Hull City (H)
12 CBIRT
5.12
35.3%
1.3%
0.38
0.03
4.27
410
Nott'm Forest · 6/6 starts
MID
Arsenal (H)
12 CBIRT
5.19
14.8%
1.3%
0.17
0.03
4.85
412
Liverpool · 4/6 starts
MID
Brentford (H)
12 CBIRT
5.10
19.7%
1.2%
0.22
0.02
3.51
414
Newcastle · 4/6 starts
MID
Aston Villa (H)
12 CBIRT
5.09
24.3%
1.1%
0.27
0.02
3.15
415
Brighton · 5/6 starts
DEF
Crystal Palace (H)
10 CBIT
3.69
34.5%
1.1%
1.40
0.02
3.57
416
Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
FWD
Sunderland (H)
12 CBIRT
5.02
—
1.1%
—
0.02
3.21
420
Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
MID
Sunderland (H)
12 CBIRT
5.03
30.4%
1.0%
0.32
0.02
5.12
421
Hull City · 6/6 starts
FWD
Fulham (H)
12 CBIRT
4.78
—
0.9%
—
0.02
4.39
422
Newcastle · 6/6 starts
FWD
Aston Villa (H)
12 CBIRT
4.94
—
0.9%
—
0.02
3.17
423
Ipswich Town · 6/6 starts
DEF
Man City (H)
10 CBIT
3.57
7.4%
0.9%
0.31
0.02
1.65
426
Coventry City · 5/6 starts
MID
Spurs (H)
12 CBIRT
4.75
11.4%
0.9%
0.13
0.02
4.44
428
Man Utd · 6/6 starts
MID
Leeds (H)
12 CBIRT
4.75
21.3%
0.8%
0.23
0.02
4.19
429
Spurs · 4/6 starts
MID
Coventry City (H)
12 CBIRT
4.63
37.9%
0.7%
0.39
0.01
4.50
430
Arsenal · 5/6 starts
MID
Nott'm Forest (H)
12 CBIRT
4.79
42.7%
0.7%
0.44
0.01
2.68
431
Nott'm Forest · 6/6 starts
MID
Arsenal (H)
12 CBIRT
4.66
14.8%
0.7%
0.16
0.01
3.08
433
Brighton · 6/6 starts
DEF
Crystal Palace (H)
10 CBIT
3.22
34.5%
0.7%
1.39
0.01
3.66
434
Brentford · 6/6 starts
FWD
Liverpool (H)
12 CBIRT
4.56
—
0.6%
—
0.01
4.88
439
Spurs · 3/6 starts
FWD
Coventry City (H)
12 CBIRT
4.35
—
0.4%
—
0.01
4.12
441
Arsenal · 6/6 starts
MID
Nott'm Forest (H)
12 CBIRT
4.33
42.7%
0.4%
0.43
0.01
4.13
442
Man City · 5/6 starts
MID
Ipswich Town (H)
12 CBIRT
4.11
44.2%
0.4%
0.45
0.01
6.07
449
Man Utd · 4/6 starts
MID
Leeds (H)
12 CBIRT
4.01
21.3%
0.2%
0.22
0.00
3.21
452
Ipswich Town · 6/6 starts
FWD
Man City (H)
12 CBIRT
4.08
—
0.2%
—
0.00
3.42
455
Crystal Palace · 4/6 starts
FWD
Brighton (H)
12 CBIRT
3.84
—
0.2%
—
0.00
2.95
456
Fulham · 6/6 starts
FWD
Hull City (H)
12 CBIRT
3.83
—
0.2%
—
0.00
4.14
458
Leeds · 6/6 starts
FWD
Man Utd (H)
12 CBIRT
3.51
—
0.1%
—
0.00
4.43
463
Brighton · 6/6 starts
DEF
Crystal Palace (H)
10 CBIT
2.48
34.5%
0.1%
1.38
0.00
5.54
465
Man City · 6/6 starts
FWD
Ipswich Town (H)
12 CBIRT
3.21
—
0.1%
—
0.00
7.86
467
Newcastle · 3/6 starts
FWD
Aston Villa (H)
12 CBIRT
3.09
—
0.0%
—
0.00
3.61
470
Spurs · 4/6 starts
FWD
Coventry City (H)
12 CBIRT
3.07
—
0.0%
—
0.00
5.11
471
Chelsea · 5/6 starts
FWD
Everton (H)
12 CBIRT
2.84
—
0.0%
—
0.00
5.47
472
Nott'm Forest · 4/6 starts
FWD
Arsenal (H)
12 CBIRT
2.93
—
0.0%
—
0.00
2.38
473
Aston Villa · 5/6 starts
FWD
Newcastle (H)
12 CBIRT
2.73
—
0.0%
—
0.00
3.63
475
Sunderland · 5/6 starts
FWD
Bournemouth (H)
12 CBIRT
2.66
—
0.0%
—
0.00
3.75
477
Everton · 6/6 starts
FWD
Chelsea (H)
12 CBIRT
2.56
—
0.0%
—
0.00
4.01
482
Liverpool · 5/6 starts
FWD
Brentford (H)
12 CBIRT
1.69
—
0.0%
—
0.00
4.21
484
Arsenal · 6/6 starts
FWD
Nott'm Forest (H)
12 CBIRT
1.67
—
0.0%
—
0.00
5.20
Canonical total first. The DEFCON probability and projected CBIT/CBIRT total come directly from the model. Team clean-sheet chance comes from the same current-GW fixture environment used by FME's clean-sheet tool; CS + DC Exp. Pts simply adds the FPL expected points from those two scoring routes. Standalone projected blocks are included in the DEFCON model total but are not yet exported as a separate mean. For MID/FWD, the component view labels the model's poss_won term as a recovery proxy; it is not presented as an official FPL ball-recovery statistic.
The rule is simple. Predicting the threshold is not.
DEF10 CBIT
Clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles.
MID / FWD12 CBIRT
The same actions, with ball recoveries also counting.
Reward+2 FPL points
The reward is capped at two points per match.
GKPNot eligible
DEFCON applies to outfield players only.
The FME difference
History tells you who has hit DEFCON. The matchup helps tell you who might hit it next.
FPL defensive contributions are awarded at a hard threshold. That makes the context of the next match unusually important. A player can average close to the target and still have very different chances of crossing it depending on the actions the fixture is likely to produce.
Fantasy Matchup Edge starts with the player's own defensive-action profile and role, then layers in the opponent and expected match environment. The aim is to estimate the probability of reaching the relevant CBIT or CBIRT threshold in this specific fixture, rather than assuming a season average will repeat itself.
Think in probabilities, not averages
A projected 10 defensive contributions is not the same thing as a guaranteed two FPL points. The useful question is how often the player gets to 10 or 12 across the range of plausible match outcomes.
Why a “hard” fixture can be good for DEFCON.
A centre-back facing a strong possession side may have a poor clean-sheet outlook but a very active defensive workload. More pressure can create more clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles — giving that defender a stronger route to the DEFCON threshold even when the fixture looks difficult in a conventional FDR.
The reverse can happen too. A defender in an apparently easy home fixture may have an excellent clean-sheet chance but very little defensive work to do. That can be a good fantasy matchup overall while still being a weak matchup for defensive contribution points.
Midfielders and forwards add another wrinkle because recoveries count towards their 12-action CBIRT threshold. A ball-winning midfielder can therefore have a very different DEFCON profile from an attacking teammate playing in the same match.
DEFCON points are one route to an FPL score.
Two extra points can materially raise a player's floor, but DEFCON should not be evaluated in isolation. Clean-sheet probability, attacking threat, bonus routes and the rest of the individual matchup still determine the overall fantasy projection.
DEFCON is the common FPL shorthand for defensive contribution points. If you want the scoring rules, qualifying actions and thresholds without the projection layer, read our DEFCON explained guide.