Fantasy Matchup Edge's FPL predicted points are built from the player and the matchup — not simply from recent average points, clean-sheet probabilities or a team-level fixture rating. We model how each player actually produces fantasy points, using their action profile and role, then compare it with what their opponent tends to allow and the expected match environment.
From there, every fixture is simulated 100,000 times, rebuilding each player's FPL score from the actions the model expects them to produce. The result is a player-specific projection of this Gameweek, with the expected score backed by the distribution of outcomes around it.
Player-specific matchups100,000 simulationsFPL scoring rebuilt from actions
Current Gameweek
FPL predicted points & action projections
Start with the fantasy outcome, then switch lenses to see the projected attacking, creative and defensive actions underneath it.
Price & ownership snapshot: 13 Oct 2026, 12:57 BST.
GW7 · validated
IF PLAYER STARTS
Overview: fantasy outputs and upside. The action lenses keep the same FPL projection and reveal different parts of the projected player profile.
224 players shownClick any player row for the full profile. Wide action views can be scrolled sideways.
Fixture
Profile
1
Manchester City FC · 6/6 starts
FWD
Ipswich Town (H)
£15.6
75.1%
7.86
34.2%
6.8%
1.5%
14
0.1%
0.50
2
Leeds United FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Man Utd (H)
£5.8
0.4%
6.70
29.2%
7.7%
1.8%
13
2.0%
1.16
3
Arsenal FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Nott'm Forest (H)
£6.3
6.6%
6.40
26.9%
4.7%
0.8%
12
3.2%
1.02
6
Manchester City FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Ipswich Town (H)
£7.8
31.2%
6.07
23.0%
2.6%
0.3%
11
0.4%
0.78
8
Brighton & Hove Albion FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Crystal Palace (H)
£5.1
34.8%
5.54
16.8%
5.0%
0.3%
12
0.1%
1.09
9
Brighton & Hove Albion FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Crystal Palace (H)
£5.0
4.6%
5.50
16.4%
2.7%
0.3%
11
55.0%
1.10
10
Chelsea FC · 5/6 starts
FWD
Everton (H)
£7.8
69.3%
5.47
16.4%
2.0%
0.3%
13
0.0%
0.70
11
Manchester United FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Leeds (H)
£11.9
35.0%
5.39
19.5%
2.4%
0.3%
11
3.1%
0.45
13
Manchester City FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Ipswich Town (H)
£6.9
3.8%
5.35
18.4%
2.1%
0.3%
11
11.7%
0.78
14
Manchester City FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Ipswich Town (H)
£8.3
13.6%
5.33
18.6%
2.3%
0.3%
11
5.9%
0.64
19
Arsenal FC · 6/6 starts
FWD
Nott'm Forest (H)
£7.5
6.6%
5.20
15.1%
2.4%
0.2%
12
0.0%
0.69
23
AFC Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
MID
Sunderland (H)
£6.3
1.5%
5.12
17.3%
2.5%
0.4%
11
1.0%
0.81
24
Tottenham Hotspur FC · 4/6 starts
FWD
Coventry City (H)
£7.0
2.1%
5.11
13.4%
1.5%
0.1%
11
0.0%
0.73
26
Manchester City FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Ipswich Town (H)
£5.8
28.0%
5.09
11.2%
3.0%
0.1%
10
12.3%
0.88
27
Chelsea FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Everton (H)
£7.9
44.7%
5.07
16.8%
2.3%
0.3%
11
7.0%
0.64
34
Arsenal FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Nott'm Forest (H)
£9.6
16.8%
4.91
15.2%
1.6%
0.2%
10
2.1%
0.51
35
Manchester City FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Ipswich Town (H)
£6.0
17.9%
4.91
9.9%
2.0%
0.0%
9
17.0%
0.82
36
Brentford FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Liverpool (H)
£5.6
8.3%
4.91
10.3%
0.4%
0.0%
10
75.0%
0.88
39
Brentford FC · 6/6 starts
FWD
Liverpool (H)
£7.8
9.3%
4.88
12.9%
1.3%
0.2%
12
0.6%
0.63
40
Aston Villa FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Newcastle (H)
£5.0
0.2%
4.86
14.0%
1.3%
0.1%
10
33.4%
0.97
41
Aston Villa FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Newcastle (H)
£5.4
2.5%
4.86
15.7%
2.1%
0.3%
10
2.6%
0.90
42
Nottingham Forest FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Arsenal (H)
£8.0
15.0%
4.85
16.7%
3.4%
0.6%
11
1.3%
0.61
46
Arsenal FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Nott'm Forest (H)
£7.9
21.9%
4.77
9.1%
1.1%
0.0%
9
30.2%
0.60
50
Newcastle United FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Aston Villa (H)
£6.1
8.2%
4.72
13.9%
1.7%
0.2%
10
1.6%
0.77
51
Everton FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Chelsea (H)
£6.6
5.7%
4.71
13.8%
1.6%
0.2%
10
18.3%
0.71
52
Tottenham Hotspur FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Coventry City (H)
£4.9
6.3%
4.70
10.0%
1.2%
0.0%
9
37.0%
0.96
54
Leeds United FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Man Utd (H)
£6.0
2.3%
4.69
12.3%
0.9%
0.1%
10
38.4%
0.78
56
Manchester City FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Ipswich Town (H)
£6.3
3.9%
4.67
9.2%
0.3%
0.0%
9
56.2%
0.74
57
Coventry City FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Spurs (H)
£4.9
0.1%
4.67
14.3%
2.0%
0.3%
10
5.5%
0.95
59
Brighton & Hove Albion FC · 5/6 starts
FWD
Crystal Palace (H)
£5.7
8.6%
4.66
9.6%
1.0%
0.0%
9
16.4%
0.82
60
Fulham FC · 3/6 starts
DEF
Hull City (H)
£4.5
0.6%
4.65
9.8%
1.0%
0.0%
9
43.9%
1.03
61
Brentford FC · 3/6 starts
MID
Liverpool (H)
£5.4
0.4%
4.63
12.5%
1.1%
0.1%
10
21.7%
0.86
64
AFC Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
DEF
Sunderland (H)
£5.4
2.8%
4.62
10.3%
1.0%
0.0%
10
38.4%
0.86
65
Brentford FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Liverpool (H)
£6.2
15.3%
4.61
14.2%
1.7%
0.2%
10
8.0%
0.74
70
Sunderland AFC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Bournemouth (H)
£5.4
1.8%
4.51
12.8%
2.5%
0.3%
10
44.8%
0.84
71
Tottenham Hotspur FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Coventry City (H)
£6.5
0.7%
4.50
12.3%
1.1%
0.1%
10
0.7%
0.69
72
Brighton & Hove Albion FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Crystal Palace (H)
£5.0
3.6%
4.50
11.1%
0.7%
0.1%
10
37.7%
0.90
74
Liverpool FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Brentford (H)
£6.9
28.4%
4.46
10.3%
0.6%
0.0%
10
35.7%
0.65
75
Manchester City FC · 3/6 starts
DEF
Ipswich Town (H)
£5.9
1.0%
4.45
6.6%
0.7%
0.0%
9
9.2%
0.75
77
Fulham FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Hull City (H)
£5.0
0.1%
4.44
9.9%
0.5%
0.0%
9
41.0%
0.89
79
Coventry City FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Spurs (H)
£5.3
0.1%
4.44
13.0%
1.8%
0.2%
10
0.9%
0.84
80
AFC Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
MID
Sunderland (H)
£6.1
7.3%
4.44
12.6%
1.4%
0.1%
10
12.6%
0.73
83
Leeds United FC · 6/6 starts
FWD
Man Utd (H)
£6.0
22.6%
4.43
9.2%
0.6%
0.1%
9
0.1%
0.74
85
Everton FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Chelsea (H)
£6.0
0.2%
4.40
6.2%
0.1%
0.0%
8
70.4%
0.73
87
Hull City AFC · 6/6 starts
FWD
Fulham (H)
£5.5
1.8%
4.39
10.9%
1.4%
0.1%
10
0.9%
0.80
91
Brentford FC · 3/6 starts
DEF
Liverpool (H)
£4.5
0.6%
4.36
9.4%
0.8%
0.0%
9
59.1%
0.97
96
Fulham FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Hull City (H)
£4.5
1.4%
4.33
8.5%
1.5%
0.1%
9
24.7%
0.96
97
Manchester City FC · 6/6 starts
GK
Ipswich Town (H)
£5.5
7.5%
4.31
3.7%
0.0%
0.0%
8
0.0%
0.78
105
Leeds United FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Man Utd (H)
£4.5
1.6%
4.28
10.5%
1.5%
0.1%
10
48.0%
0.95
106
Manchester City FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Ipswich Town (H)
£5.8
5.8%
4.28
9.5%
0.4%
0.0%
9
20.6%
0.74
107
Fulham FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Hull City (H)
£5.6
4.7%
4.27
10.7%
0.8%
0.1%
10
1.3%
0.76
108
Tottenham Hotspur FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Coventry City (H)
£4.4
2.3%
4.27
7.1%
2.3%
0.1%
9
2.1%
0.97
109
Manchester United FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Leeds (H)
£7.9
6.4%
4.27
11.4%
1.3%
0.1%
10
2.3%
0.54
110
Manchester City FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Ipswich Town (H)
£5.5
1.9%
4.27
5.3%
1.3%
0.0%
8
11.6%
0.78
111
AFC Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
DEF
Sunderland (H)
£5.0
0.6%
4.26
8.0%
0.7%
0.0%
9
43.8%
0.85
112
AFC Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
DEF
Sunderland (H)
£5.5
0.8%
4.24
6.8%
0.0%
0.0%
9
57.8%
0.77
116
Liverpool FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Brentford (H)
£6.5
15.8%
4.21
10.1%
1.7%
0.1%
10
39.8%
0.65
117
Liverpool FC · 5/6 starts
FWD
Brentford (H)
£9.0
14.7%
4.21
7.4%
0.5%
0.0%
9
0.0%
0.47
118
Brighton & Hove Albion FC · 3/6 starts
MID
Crystal Palace (H)
£4.5
3.8%
4.21
10.1%
0.7%
0.0%
10
11.0%
0.93
122
Manchester United FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Leeds (H)
£7.9
20.0%
4.19
10.9%
1.1%
0.1%
10
0.8%
0.53
123
Brentford FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Liverpool (H)
£5.9
0.2%
4.19
10.4%
0.8%
0.1%
10
26.9%
0.71
124
Arsenal FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Nott'm Forest (H)
£5.4
4.4%
4.19
4.8%
0.6%
0.0%
8
7.8%
0.78
125
Arsenal FC · 6/6 starts
GK
Nott'm Forest (H)
£6.1
43.8%
4.19
2.8%
0.0%
0.0%
8
0.0%
0.69
127
Chelsea FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Everton (H)
£9.7
25.1%
4.17
10.4%
0.9%
0.1%
10
4.6%
0.43
129
Fulham FC · 6/6 starts
FWD
Hull City (H)
£6.1
7.3%
4.14
7.4%
0.6%
0.0%
9
0.2%
0.68
131
Arsenal FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Nott'm Forest (H)
£6.8
19.9%
4.13
8.0%
0.3%
0.0%
9
0.4%
0.61
133
Brighton & Hove Albion FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Crystal Palace (H)
£5.4
0.4%
4.13
8.5%
0.4%
0.0%
9
10.1%
0.76
134
Liverpool FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Brentford (H)
£7.1
7.9%
4.13
9.8%
0.8%
0.1%
9
5.2%
0.58
138
Tottenham Hotspur FC · 3/6 starts
FWD
Coventry City (H)
£5.8
1.0%
4.12
6.7%
0.3%
0.0%
9
0.4%
0.71
140
Liverpool FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Brentford (H)
£7.3
5.2%
4.10
9.3%
0.7%
0.1%
9
5.2%
0.56
141
Newcastle United FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Aston Villa (H)
£5.5
0.1%
4.08
5.2%
0.1%
0.0%
8
42.8%
0.74
143
Tottenham Hotspur FC · 3/6 starts
DEF
Coventry City (H)
£5.4
5.9%
4.07
6.5%
1.0%
0.0%
8
16.3%
0.75
144
Chelsea FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Everton (H)
£5.9
6.5%
4.07
7.3%
0.4%
0.0%
9
54.5%
0.69
145
Liverpool FC · 3/6 starts
MID
Brentford (H)
£8.0
2.0%
4.06
9.5%
0.8%
0.1%
9
2.1%
0.51
148
Newcastle United FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Aston Villa (H)
£5.0
0.8%
4.06
7.4%
0.5%
0.0%
9
55.2%
0.81
151
Sunderland AFC · 6/6 starts
MID
Bournemouth (H)
£5.7
3.1%
4.05
9.4%
0.8%
0.1%
9
6.1%
0.71
153
Arsenal FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Nott'm Forest (H)
£4.6
17.3%
4.04
3.7%
0.7%
0.0%
8
13.0%
0.88
154
Everton FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Chelsea (H)
£6.2
18.4%
4.03
8.7%
1.0%
0.1%
9
51.0%
0.65
156
AFC Bournemouth · 5/6 starts
MID
Sunderland (H)
£6.0
3.7%
4.02
5.7%
0.1%
0.0%
7
54.5%
0.67
157
Liverpool FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Brentford (H)
£5.4
1.3%
4.02
7.1%
0.3%
0.0%
9
37.8%
0.74
159
Everton FC · 6/6 starts
FWD
Chelsea (H)
£5.7
8.6%
4.01
6.9%
0.4%
0.0%
9
0.0%
0.70
162
Leeds United FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Man Utd (H)
£5.0
4.5%
3.97
7.3%
0.5%
0.0%
9
54.8%
0.79
163
Arsenal FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Nott'm Forest (H)
£5.9
52.2%
3.97
3.9%
0.7%
0.0%
8
6.4%
0.67
165
AFC Bournemouth · 4/6 starts
MID
Sunderland (H)
£5.9
0.6%
3.94
9.2%
0.8%
0.1%
9
3.4%
0.67
167
Ipswich Town FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Man City (H)
£5.3
0.2%
3.94
9.7%
1.1%
0.1%
9
2.7%
0.74
168
Fulham FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Hull City (H)
£5.4
0.7%
3.93
8.2%
0.5%
0.0%
9
7.1%
0.73
169
Tottenham Hotspur FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Coventry City (H)
£5.0
3.7%
3.93
5.7%
1.1%
0.0%
8
15.2%
0.79
170
Newcastle United FC · 3/6 starts
MID
Aston Villa (H)
£5.9
0.1%
3.92
8.0%
0.5%
0.0%
9
3.6%
0.66
171
Fulham FC · 6/6 starts
GK
Hull City (H)
£4.5
4.1%
3.92
3.2%
0.0%
0.0%
8
0.0%
0.87
172
Manchester United FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Leeds (H)
£5.5
1.5%
3.92
4.9%
0.1%
0.0%
7
51.5%
0.71
173
Coventry City FC · 3/6 starts
FWD
Spurs (H)
£5.4
0.3%
3.91
7.3%
0.6%
0.0%
9
1.4%
0.72
174
Brighton & Hove Albion FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Crystal Palace (H)
£4.5
1.5%
3.91
5.9%
1.2%
0.0%
8
19.7%
0.87
179
Newcastle United FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Aston Villa (H)
£5.0
2.2%
3.90
7.2%
0.9%
0.0%
9
38.4%
0.78
180
Tottenham Hotspur FC · 3/6 starts
MID
Coventry City (H)
£5.7
0.7%
3.89
5.9%
0.2%
0.0%
8
27.3%
0.68
186
Brentford FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Liverpool (H)
£5.0
2.5%
3.85
6.5%
0.2%
0.0%
8
41.6%
0.77
192
Hull City AFC · 5/6 starts
MID
Fulham (H)
£5.2
7.1%
3.84
9.4%
0.8%
0.1%
9
14.6%
0.74
194
Coventry City FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Spurs (H)
£4.8
0.1%
3.83
5.4%
0.2%
0.0%
7
45.9%
0.80
195
Everton FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Chelsea (H)
£5.5
2.6%
3.83
7.6%
0.9%
0.1%
9
46.9%
0.70
197
Tottenham Hotspur FC · 6/6 starts
GK
Coventry City (H)
£4.5
15.7%
3.82
2.5%
0.3%
0.0%
8
0.0%
0.85
201
Chelsea FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Everton (H)
£6.5
1.4%
3.81
7.2%
0.3%
0.0%
8
2.2%
0.59
202
Tottenham Hotspur FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Coventry City (H)
£5.5
0.2%
3.81
1.4%
0.0%
0.0%
5
70.2%
0.69
203
Ipswich Town FC · 3/6 starts
MID
Man City (H)
£5.0
0.1%
3.81
3.5%
0.1%
0.0%
6
63.0%
0.76
209
Manchester United FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Leeds (H)
£5.8
1.4%
3.78
5.1%
0.1%
0.0%
7
30.9%
0.65
214
Brighton & Hove Albion FC · 6/6 starts
GK
Crystal Palace (H)
£4.5
21.8%
3.77
2.5%
0.0%
0.0%
8
0.0%
0.84
217
Coventry City FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Spurs (H)
£4.9
0.1%
3.75
6.0%
0.2%
0.0%
8
58.4%
0.77
218
AFC Bournemouth · 4/6 starts
MID
Sunderland (H)
£5.0
0.3%
3.75
4.6%
0.1%
0.0%
7
48.8%
0.75
220
Sunderland AFC · 5/6 starts
FWD
Bournemouth (H)
£5.7
5.2%
3.75
6.2%
0.4%
0.0%
9
0.0%
0.66
229
Aston Villa FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Newcastle (H)
£5.9
1.2%
3.73
8.1%
0.7%
0.1%
9
2.6%
0.63
237
Leeds United FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Man Utd (H)
£4.9
0.3%
3.69
3.0%
0.0%
0.0%
6
48.2%
0.75
240
Chelsea FC · 5/6 starts
GK
Everton (H)
£5.0
4.7%
3.68
3.7%
0.0%
0.0%
8
0.0%
0.74
243
Leeds United FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Man Utd (H)
£4.5
0.1%
3.67
5.6%
0.4%
0.0%
8
40.7%
0.82
246
Brighton & Hove Albion FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Crystal Palace (H)
£4.5
0.3%
3.66
3.6%
0.7%
0.0%
7
0.7%
0.81
251
Aston Villa FC · 5/6 starts
FWD
Newcastle (H)
£6.6
2.5%
3.63
5.7%
0.4%
0.0%
9
0.0%
0.55
253
Tottenham Hotspur FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Coventry City (H)
£4.9
0.2%
3.62
5.5%
0.2%
0.0%
8
15.2%
0.74
254
Nottingham Forest FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Arsenal (H)
£5.5
0.1%
3.62
4.8%
0.2%
0.0%
7
32.7%
0.66
255
Brentford FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Liverpool (H)
£5.5
1.6%
3.61
4.2%
0.1%
0.0%
7
22.0%
0.66
256
Newcastle United FC · 3/6 starts
FWD
Aston Villa (H)
£6.0
0.1%
3.61
4.9%
0.3%
0.0%
9
0.0%
0.60
258
Fulham FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Hull City (H)
£4.5
1.0%
3.60
3.3%
0.4%
0.0%
8
17.7%
0.80
261
Aston Villa FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Newcastle (H)
£4.5
1.0%
3.59
6.5%
0.4%
0.0%
8
5.5%
0.80
265
Brighton & Hove Albion FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Crystal Palace (H)
£4.4
1.6%
3.57
2.9%
1.2%
0.0%
7
1.1%
0.81
269
Chelsea FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Everton (H)
£4.8
0.8%
3.56
4.8%
0.6%
0.0%
8
25.5%
0.74
273
Chelsea FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Everton (H)
£5.0
0.2%
3.54
5.0%
0.0%
0.0%
8
66.4%
0.71
274
Arsenal FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Nott'm Forest (H)
£7.3
10.8%
3.54
4.3%
0.1%
0.0%
7
21.0%
0.49
277
AFC Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
GK
Sunderland (H)
£4.5
2.9%
3.54
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
8
0.0%
0.79
278
Crystal Palace FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Brighton (H)
£5.4
0.7%
3.53
5.0%
0.2%
0.0%
7
27.2%
0.65
279
Nottingham Forest FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Arsenal (H)
£5.0
0.1%
3.53
4.6%
0.2%
0.0%
7
39.0%
0.71
280
AFC Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
DEF
Sunderland (H)
£4.5
0.1%
3.52
3.9%
0.4%
0.0%
7
4.6%
0.78
283
Sunderland AFC · 6/6 starts
MID
Bournemouth (H)
£5.0
0.1%
3.51
6.4%
0.4%
0.0%
8
7.2%
0.70
285
Liverpool FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Brentford (H)
£6.5
0.8%
3.51
6.2%
0.3%
0.0%
8
1.2%
0.54
290
Chelsea FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Everton (H)
£5.0
0.2%
3.49
3.8%
0.1%
0.0%
7
31.3%
0.70
295
Hull City AFC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Fulham (H)
£4.1
6.2%
3.48
6.4%
0.7%
0.0%
8
55.3%
0.85
296
Everton FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Chelsea (H)
£5.5
0.7%
3.47
5.6%
0.3%
0.0%
8
6.2%
0.63
301
Brentford FC · 3/6 starts
MID
Liverpool (H)
£4.8
0.6%
3.46
2.4%
0.0%
0.0%
5
46.3%
0.72
302
Leeds United FC · 6/6 starts
GK
Man Utd (H)
£5.0
5.6%
3.46
3.4%
0.2%
0.0%
7
0.0%
0.69
305
Brighton & Hove Albion FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Crystal Palace (H)
£6.0
39.0%
3.45
3.3%
0.0%
0.0%
7
4.0%
0.57
312
Sunderland AFC · 6/6 starts
MID
Bournemouth (H)
£5.4
3.4%
3.42
2.4%
0.0%
0.0%
6
37.6%
0.63
313
Ipswich Town FC · 6/6 starts
FWD
Man City (H)
£5.6
4.0%
3.42
4.6%
0.3%
0.0%
8
0.2%
0.61
314
Coventry City FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Spurs (H)
£4.5
0.1%
3.42
5.5%
0.4%
0.0%
8
60.2%
0.76
316
Crystal Palace FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Brighton (H)
£5.0
0.0%
3.41
4.5%
0.1%
0.0%
7
26.7%
0.68
320
Brentford FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Liverpool (H)
£4.5
3.7%
3.41
4.1%
0.1%
0.0%
8
51.1%
0.76
328
Brentford FC · 6/6 starts
GK
Liverpool (H)
£5.0
6.1%
3.37
3.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7
0.0%
0.67
339
Crystal Palace FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Brighton (H)
£5.0
0.3%
3.34
6.9%
1.4%
0.1%
8
23.1%
0.67
342
Fulham FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Hull City (H)
£4.5
1.2%
3.34
1.6%
0.0%
0.0%
7
12.9%
0.74
344
Hull City AFC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Fulham (H)
£4.1
7.3%
3.33
5.5%
0.5%
0.0%
8
50.7%
0.81
351
Newcastle United FC · 6/6 starts
GK
Aston Villa (H)
£5.0
1.5%
3.30
2.7%
0.2%
0.0%
7
0.0%
0.66
352
Coventry City FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Spurs (H)
£4.0
8.8%
3.30
6.2%
0.7%
0.0%
8
51.5%
0.82
355
Ipswich Town FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Man City (H)
£5.5
0.8%
3.28
5.2%
0.3%
0.0%
8
5.4%
0.60
359
Hull City AFC · 4/6 starts
MID
Fulham (H)
£5.0
0.1%
3.26
4.8%
0.2%
0.0%
7
7.5%
0.65
360
Fulham FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Hull City (H)
£5.5
0.3%
3.26
3.9%
0.1%
0.0%
7
3.4%
0.59
362
Aston Villa FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Newcastle (H)
£5.0
0.3%
3.25
3.7%
0.1%
0.0%
7
18.2%
0.65
365
Newcastle United FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Aston Villa (H)
£5.3
20.8%
3.24
4.0%
0.5%
0.0%
7
17.5%
0.61
367
Ipswich Town FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Man City (H)
£5.4
0.1%
3.24
5.0%
0.3%
0.0%
7
8.0%
0.60
368
Newcastle United FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Aston Villa (H)
£5.5
0.2%
3.24
2.6%
0.0%
0.0%
5
28.2%
0.59
371
Newcastle United FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Aston Villa (H)
£4.5
1.4%
3.23
4.2%
0.6%
0.0%
7
10.7%
0.72
374
Liverpool FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Brentford (H)
£5.4
3.1%
3.21
5.0%
0.8%
0.0%
8
21.6%
0.59
375
Manchester United FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Leeds (H)
£6.9
1.3%
3.21
4.9%
0.2%
0.0%
8
0.2%
0.47
377
AFC Bournemouth · 6/6 starts
FWD
Sunderland (H)
£6.0
3.5%
3.21
2.8%
0.1%
0.0%
8
1.1%
0.53
380
Aston Villa FC · 5/6 starts
GK
Newcastle (H)
£5.0
1.9%
3.19
3.2%
0.2%
0.0%
7
0.0%
0.64
390
Leeds United FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Man Utd (H)
£4.7
8.8%
3.18
4.3%
1.0%
0.0%
7
2.5%
0.68
394
Manchester United FC · 6/6 starts
GK
Leeds (H)
£4.9
9.2%
3.17
2.2%
0.0%
0.0%
7
0.0%
0.65
397
Newcastle United FC · 6/6 starts
FWD
Aston Villa (H)
£6.3
18.3%
3.17
3.2%
0.2%
0.0%
8
0.9%
0.50
402
Everton FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Chelsea (H)
£5.0
0.4%
3.16
3.1%
0.1%
0.0%
6
18.0%
0.63
404
Newcastle United FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Aston Villa (H)
£5.0
0.6%
3.15
2.9%
0.1%
0.0%
6
1.1%
0.63
407
Sunderland AFC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Bournemouth (H)
£4.8
1.7%
3.14
4.6%
0.3%
0.0%
8
46.9%
0.65
409
Crystal Palace FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Brighton (H)
£5.5
0.3%
3.13
3.7%
0.1%
0.0%
7
8.2%
0.57
410
Sunderland AFC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Bournemouth (H)
£4.5
0.3%
3.13
4.8%
1.2%
0.0%
7
1.7%
0.69
411
Nottingham Forest FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Arsenal (H)
£4.5
0.2%
3.11
3.5%
0.2%
0.0%
7
43.5%
0.69
413
Tottenham Hotspur FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Coventry City (H)
£5.3
1.7%
3.10
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
5
15.5%
0.58
417
Nottingham Forest FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Arsenal (H)
£5.5
0.6%
3.08
4.0%
0.2%
0.0%
7
0.7%
0.56
418
Coventry City FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Spurs (H)
£4.9
0.1%
3.07
2.7%
0.0%
0.0%
5
20.9%
0.63
419
Nottingham Forest FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Arsenal (H)
£5.5
2.1%
3.07
3.7%
0.2%
0.0%
7
51.2%
0.56
420
Liverpool FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Brentford (H)
£5.0
3.7%
3.07
3.8%
0.4%
0.0%
7
25.4%
0.61
423
Nottingham Forest FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Arsenal (H)
£5.4
5.3%
3.04
5.3%
1.1%
0.0%
8
15.9%
0.56
424
Manchester United FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Leeds (H)
£4.8
7.6%
3.03
3.6%
0.3%
0.0%
7
27.1%
0.63
426
Hull City AFC · 4/6 starts
MID
Fulham (H)
£4.4
0.5%
3.02
4.5%
0.2%
0.0%
7
10.6%
0.69
428
Leeds United FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Man Utd (H)
£5.4
0.9%
3.02
0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
5
35.9%
0.56
429
Liverpool FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Brentford (H)
£5.3
2.1%
3.01
3.8%
0.6%
0.0%
7
13.6%
0.57
431
Aston Villa FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Newcastle (H)
£4.5
0.3%
3.00
3.0%
0.2%
0.0%
7
26.2%
0.67
434
Everton FC · 3/6 starts
DEF
Chelsea (H)
£4.5
1.5%
2.98
4.4%
0.9%
0.0%
7
6.5%
0.66
436
Hull City AFC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Fulham (H)
£4.2
13.8%
2.96
4.1%
0.4%
0.0%
7
29.8%
0.71
438
Crystal Palace FC · 4/6 starts
FWD
Brighton (H)
£6.0
0.7%
2.95
2.4%
0.1%
0.0%
7
0.2%
0.49
441
Liverpool FC · 6/6 starts
GK
Brentford (H)
£5.5
4.3%
2.93
1.7%
0.1%
0.0%
7
0.0%
0.53
442
Aston Villa FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Newcastle (H)
£4.4
0.4%
2.93
3.1%
0.3%
0.0%
7
15.1%
0.67
443
Aston Villa FC · 3/6 starts
DEF
Newcastle (H)
£4.5
0.4%
2.93
2.9%
0.2%
0.0%
7
30.1%
0.65
455
Sunderland AFC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Bournemouth (H)
£5.0
0.2%
2.84
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7
43.6%
0.57
456
Hull City AFC · 6/6 starts
MID
Fulham (H)
£4.5
5.0%
2.84
1.9%
0.0%
0.0%
5
9.1%
0.63
461
Manchester United FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Leeds (H)
£4.3
6.8%
2.80
3.1%
0.4%
0.0%
7
20.6%
0.65
463
Everton FC · 6/6 starts
GK
Chelsea (H)
£5.5
9.0%
2.78
1.5%
0.0%
0.0%
7
0.0%
0.51
464
Sunderland AFC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Bournemouth (H)
£4.4
0.2%
2.77
2.8%
0.3%
0.0%
7
19.4%
0.63
466
Sunderland AFC · 6/6 starts
GK
Bournemouth (H)
£4.9
2.3%
2.74
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
7
0.0%
0.56
467
Crystal Palace FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Brighton (H)
£4.9
0.6%
2.73
2.7%
0.1%
0.0%
6
48.2%
0.56
468
Nottingham Forest FC · 3/6 starts
DEF
Arsenal (H)
£5.4
0.5%
2.72
3.3%
0.4%
0.0%
7
23.6%
0.50
469
Chelsea FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Everton (H)
£4.5
0.7%
2.72
1.7%
0.2%
0.0%
6
13.1%
0.60
470
Hull City AFC · 6/6 starts
GK
Fulham (H)
£4.7
13.5%
2.71
2.0%
0.2%
0.0%
7
0.0%
0.58
472
Brentford FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Liverpool (H)
£4.6
7.4%
2.69
2.4%
0.4%
0.0%
6
5.0%
0.59
475
Everton FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Chelsea (H)
£4.6
3.3%
2.68
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
6
26.7%
0.58
476
Arsenal FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Nott'm Forest (H)
£5.4
0.5%
2.68
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3
0.7%
0.50
477
Nottingham Forest FC · 6/6 starts
GK
Arsenal (H)
£5.0
1.5%
2.66
1.4%
0.0%
0.0%
7
0.0%
0.53
485
Aston Villa FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Newcastle (H)
£4.4
4.4%
2.61
2.6%
0.4%
0.0%
6
6.0%
0.59
486
Ipswich Town FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Man City (H)
£4.0
2.6%
2.59
3.2%
0.3%
0.0%
6
43.2%
0.65
491
Manchester United FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Leeds (H)
£4.8
1.5%
2.55
1.4%
0.1%
0.0%
6
8.1%
0.53
492
Nottingham Forest FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Arsenal (H)
£5.0
6.9%
2.55
2.7%
0.6%
0.0%
6
5.2%
0.51
494
Crystal Palace FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Brighton (H)
£4.8
0.2%
2.54
1.8%
0.0%
0.0%
6
42.6%
0.53
496
Fulham FC · 5/6 starts
MID
Hull City (H)
£4.9
0.3%
2.53
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
4
8.9%
0.52
499
Manchester United FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Leeds (H)
£4.9
1.3%
2.48
1.5%
0.1%
0.0%
6
13.6%
0.51
500
Hull City AFC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Fulham (H)
£4.0
2.9%
2.45
2.5%
0.4%
0.0%
6
4.4%
0.61
501
Ipswich Town FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Man City (H)
£3.9
1.2%
2.45
2.9%
0.2%
0.0%
6
50.6%
0.63
502
Coventry City FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Spurs (H)
£3.9
7.4%
2.44
2.1%
0.1%
0.0%
6
22.1%
0.63
505
Everton FC · 4/6 starts
MID
Chelsea (H)
£5.9
0.1%
2.41
1.1%
0.0%
0.0%
4
5.5%
0.41
507
Ipswich Town FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Man City (H)
£4.9
0.1%
2.40
0.8%
0.0%
0.0%
4
15.3%
0.49
508
Nottingham Forest FC · 4/6 starts
FWD
Arsenal (H)
£5.6
2.3%
2.38
0.8%
0.0%
0.0%
5
0.0%
0.43
510
Sunderland AFC · 6/6 starts
MID
Bournemouth (H)
£4.8
0.2%
2.37
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
4
8.6%
0.49
513
Leeds United FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Man Utd (H)
£4.5
0.1%
2.35
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
6
8.5%
0.52
515
Crystal Palace FC · 3/6 starts
GK
Brighton (H)
£4.5
0.1%
2.32
1.3%
0.2%
0.0%
6
0.0%
0.52
520
Coventry City FC · 6/6 starts
GK
Spurs (H)
£4.5
0.7%
2.28
1.4%
0.2%
0.0%
6
0.0%
0.51
521
Crystal Palace FC · 6/6 starts
MID
Brighton (H)
£5.0
0.6%
2.27
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
3
5.8%
0.45
523
Coventry City FC · 4/6 starts
DEF
Spurs (H)
£4.0
0.5%
2.25
2.1%
0.2%
0.0%
6
23.3%
0.56
525
Nottingham Forest FC · 5/6 starts
DEF
Arsenal (H)
£4.4
2.0%
2.24
1.0%
0.1%
0.0%
6
13.1%
0.51
527
Ipswich Town FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Man City (H)
£4.0
11.6%
2.23
3.4%
0.6%
0.0%
7
19.1%
0.56
528
Crystal Palace FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Brighton (H)
£4.5
6.0%
2.23
1.5%
0.1%
0.0%
6
13.9%
0.50
535
Coventry City FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Spurs (H)
£4.0
0.9%
1.91
1.1%
0.1%
0.0%
6
2.8%
0.48
537
Hull City AFC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Fulham (H)
£4.0
0.7%
1.90
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
6
2.7%
0.47
540
Ipswich Town FC · 4/6 starts
GK
Man City (H)
£4.5
0.5%
1.79
1.0%
0.1%
0.0%
4
0.0%
0.40
542
Ipswich Town FC · 6/6 starts
DEF
Man City (H)
£4.0
7.7%
1.65
1.7%
0.3%
0.0%
6
0.9%
0.41
Fantasy outcome colours: fixed FME thresholds from weaker red/orange to stronger green.Action colours: position-relative rate intensity. Darker means a higher projected frequency, not necessarily a better action.
All projections assume the player starts. Projected action rates are matchup-adjusted expected actions per 90, not raw historical totals and not a guarantee of 90 minutes.
A useful projection needs to answer a harder question than “is this a good fixture?” Two players in the same team can face exactly the same opponent and have very different routes to points.
Fantasy Matchup Edge builds a profile of how a player actually plays: the actions they produce, the role and channel they occupy, where those actions happen and how that evidence changes across relevant match environments. We then compare that player profile with the actions and areas their opponent tends to allow. Historical performance, team context and market expectations all help describe the match — but none of them is simply converted into a player score.
The fixture is then simulated 100,000 times. Goals, assists and the smaller actions that contribute to FPL scoring are generated within coherent match outcomes, allowing each player's FPL points to be rebuilt from the ground up. That gives us an FPL expected-points projection and, just as importantly, a distribution of possible outcomes around it.
The FME difference
We project the player inside the match, rather than assigning a points estimate to the fixture. A favourable team fixture can still be a mediocre individual matchup — and a difficult fixture can contain a very good route to points for the right player.
Expected points are only the starting point
One average can hide two very different fantasy options. A steady player and a volatile attacker might have similar predicted points while carrying completely different ceilings and haul chances. That is why the full projection board keeps the mean alongside upside measures such as the P90 ceiling and the probability of a 10+ point haul.
These FPL points predictions are best used as a ranking and decision tool, not a promise of an exact score. They are designed to show which players the current matchup is most likely to favour, how strong that opportunity looks, and how much upside sits behind the headline projection.
Looking beyond one Gameweek?
For transfer planning, the same player-level matchup logic can be extended across the schedule. See our Next 5 FPL fixture difficulty ratings to compare upcoming runs without reducing every fixture to one generic green-or-red team rating.
FPL predicted points: quick answers
What are FPL expected points?
Expected points are the average FPL score across the simulated outcomes for a player. They summarise the centre of the distribution; the ceiling and haul-probability columns show more of what sits around that average.
Are the projections just based on recent FPL points or bookmaker odds?
No. Historical evidence and the expected match environment are important inputs, but the model projects the underlying player actions and matchup before translating the simulated outcomes into FPL scoring.
Do the projections assume the player starts?
Yes. The current projection board is designed to answer how a player is expected to perform if they start. Availability and expected line-ups should therefore be considered alongside the numbers.