Blog
Fantasy Matchup Edge
Notes on how the model works, what we are building and how we think about fantasy football matchups.
Model evaluation
GW4 Evaluation: Inside the Data
FPL predicted points vs actuals, ranking separation, near-perfect 10+ haul calibration, the Okafor hit, the Wissa fade, Sorare results and honest misses from Gameweek 4.
Sorare • NEXT5
Sorare Next5 Case Study
Putting our money where our model is: building a Sorare Limited value team from the NEXT5 projections and following it across the coming Gameweeks.
Model evaluation
GW3 Review: The Model Faded Some of FPL’s Most Popular Picks
GW3 calibration, haul probabilities, ranking separation and the popular FPL assets the matchup model actively rated below the crowd.
Model evaluation
GW2 Evaluation: Inside the Data
FPL and Sorare calibration, ranking separation, haul probabilities, strong calls, honest misses and the early DEFCON watch item from Gameweek 2.
Model
How our model works
A plain-English explanation of how Fantasy Matchup Edge combines player action profiles, opponent tendencies, match environment and simulation to produce FPL and Sorare projections.